Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (edit 62)

I'm continuing to work on editing Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection.

Things are edited down to "More non-Christian resurrections reports make Jesus's resurrection more likely". But I've added two placeholder headings - "A quick aside: defining "outliers"" and "Back to the shape parameter determination" - just before that point. These placeholder headings will be fleshed out next.


You may next want to read:
The intellect trap
Time spent on video games: worthwhile or wasteful?
Another post, from the table of contents

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (edit 61)

I'm continuing to work on editing Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection.

Things are edited down to the plot titled "Generalized Pareto Distribution (probability of near-max values)", under the section "But how should we determine the value of this shape parameter?"


You may next want to read:
The Gospel: the central message of Christianity (part 1)
Christianity and falsifiability
Another post, from the table of contents

Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection (edit 60)

I'm continuing to work on editing Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection.

Things are edited down to "For example, this is what the tail end of the distribution looks like with various shape parameters", and the plot titled "Generalized Pareto Distribution (tail shapes)" has been updated.


You may next want to read:
Questions and answers: my career change to data science
I am a sinner.
Another post, from the table of contents

A presentation on Bayesian hierarchical modeling

This is a slide deck that I put together for my day job. It explains Bayesian hierarchical modeling.

Link to the slide deck

It's given in the context of A/B testing and multiple comparisons, and assumes some knowledge of Beta distributions - but even if you don't have that background, it should still be useful as an intuitive, conceptual understanding of Bayesian logic and hierarchical modeling.

In particular, there's one part in my Bayesian evaluation for the likelihood of Christ's resurrection where I mention Bayesian hierarchical modeling in passing. This presentation actually came out of me thinking through that part. So I thought I'd make a post out of it.


You may next want to read:
Sherlock Bayes, logical detective: a murder mystery game
A record of the total solar eclipse
Another post, from the table of contents